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Thread: Hard drives greater than 4TB

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    Default Hard drives greater than 4TB

    Hi all,

    Most of us here have burgeoning....collections of roms to deal with and I would just love to have my Gamecube and PS1 sets fully extracted and ready to play at a moments notice.

    So I was thinking, does anyone know/care to guess/have factual info on how Hard drives will progress in say, the next 5 years?

    Like because of the Thailand floods HD's have been kept priced quite highly and this should return to normal later in the year, so what comes after 4TB? What I'm getting at is that back in about 1992 or so, I bought a 1 Gigabyte 3.5" drive and not too long after you started to see 2GB and then 3 and 4 and maybe even 5GB but then all of a sudden it went 8GB, 10GB, 20GB, 40GB and so on.

    Are we likely to follow the same pattern in the terabyte era or is it pure engineering magic to increase the aerial density at the same rate as the GB did? Am I making any sense?

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    I think the best I could do is direct you to Wikipedia's description of Moore's Law.

    Moore's Law:
    "Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware whereby the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to David House, an Intel executive, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).

    The capabilities of many digital electronic devices are strongly linked to Moore's law: processing speed, memory capacity, sensors and even the number and size of pixels in digital cameras. All of these are improving at (roughly) exponential rates as well (see Other formulations and similar laws). This exponential improvement has dramatically enhanced the impact of digital electronics in nearly every segment of the world economy. Moore's law describes a driving force of technological and social change in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

    The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper. The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years". His prediction has proved to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.

    This trend has continued for more than half a century. 2005 sources expected it to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.However, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors has growth slowing at the end of 2013, after which time transistor counts and densities are to double only every 3 years."

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    I really hoping for a 1PB drive by the end of the decade

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    If you follow the HD tech, they are starting to write multiple layers on the platters. Which is increasing the space by alot. Not sure if it will increase at the same pace as it always has though.
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    Of cource by the end of the decade many expect that SSD type devices will have basically replaced the mechanical hard disk. And there goes platter density right out the window.

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    I hadn't heard about multiple layering, I'll have to look it up. I too would hope for at least 100TB by the end of the decade although I feel it will slow down but here's hoping I'm wrong. I have also heard that SSD's may only have a limited life because once they get to certain size (of cells) there is a trade off in performance.

    But then again, they were saying the same thing about mechanical drives around the 400 gig mark, then they moved to perpendicular recording to combat the super paramagnetic effect so maybe something will come up to extend the performance in the same way.

    I guess only time will tell and we'll know in due course if capacities will increase at the same rate.

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    Heres an intereting bit from techradar;

    But what is HAMR? Basically, researchers discovered several years ago that heating up a magnetic surface prior to writing information to it can increase the accuracy and efficiency of write heads astronomically, while cooling them down improves the ability of a read head to take that data back.

    The future involves a small and highly focused laser, mounted on the drive head, which heats up the area of the platter about to be written to. This area then rapidly cools down as the drive spins ready for long-term storage and reading operations.

    So whilst thery might not get bigger, they might be more stable.

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    Well I just checked the local online stores and they finally have 4TB drives in. At least that should take care of PS1 and Gamecube. It will be interesting to find this thread in a few years and continue the discussion to let our past selves know what happened.

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    This is from October but it shows that they already have the possibility of 18tb drives.

    http://www.geek.com/articles/chips/1...salt-20111014/

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    And 3 months later another article from the same site saying 400TB drives coming after that. http://www.geek.com/articles/chips/i...ible-20120113/



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